The S M Nazmuz Sakib Theory of International Relations (SIR Theory)

Abstract

The S M Nazmuz Sakib Theory of International Relations (SIR Theory) conceptualizes international relations (IR) as a multilayer hypergame in which states, non-state actors, and institutions interact through overlapping combinatorial structures. In this theory, power is not a mere aggregation of attributes but is derived from the positional advantages actors hold within dynamic network configurations. SIR Theory introduces a comprehensive model of IR, consisting of four interlocking combinatorial systems: the Power Configuration Space (PCS), Interaction Matrix, Dynamic Stability Metric, and the Sakib Power Index (SPI). These systems allow for the quantification of actor influence, conflict probability, and optimal coalition formation through combinatorial optimization techniques. The theory is tested empirically, demonstrating its predictive power in forecasting alliance shifts and major conflicts. The approach also offers a framework for diplomatic interventions and optimizes the distribution of veto power in international organizations, such as the UN Security Council. By transforming IR analysis into a computational design science, the SIR Theory provides a method for preemptively preventing conflicts through strategic interventions.