S M Nazmuz Sakib’s Climate Conflict Theory (CCT): A Formal Model, Empirical Strategy, and Real-World Applications
Keywords:
climate shocks; conflict; resource stress; adaptation; institutions; migration; hazard models; event study; instrumental variables; spatial diffusionAbstract
We present a unified, formal statement of S M Nazmuz Sakib’s Climate Conflict Theory (CCT). CCT posits that exogenous climate shocks propagate through resource stress, economic pressure, and social grievance channels, moderated by institutions and adaptation, to elevate the risk and intensity of violence. We build a structural, dynamic system capturing (i) climate
anomalies, (ii) resource and market responses, (iii) grievance accumulation and mobilization, (iv) spatial diffusion and migration, and (v) policy interventions. We derive comparative statics, stability conditions, and estimable reduced forms (hazard, Poisson, and event-study specifications),
and outline an empirical strategy leveraging instruments such as large-scale climate oscillations. Applications (coastal cyclones, Sahel rainfall shocks, and urban heat waves) illustrate how the model guides diagnosis and policy design. Ten original diagrams provide conceptual, network, and risk-surface views, enabling direct implementation in data and simulation.
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